{"id":1179,"date":"2009-09-03T15:55:51","date_gmt":"2009-09-03T19:55:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/?p=1179"},"modified":"2009-09-03T16:15:45","modified_gmt":"2009-09-03T20:15:45","slug":"seat-switching","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/?p=1179","title":{"rendered":"Magic Number"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Paul Adams<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekospolitics.com\/index.php\/2009\/09\/liberalstories-in-dead-heat-as-election-looms-september-3-2009\/\">EKOS Poll<\/a> for the CBC shows the Liberals tied to the decimal point on national vote intention. Naturally, this slight closing of the race from last week means a slight change in the seat projection for the front runners from my last post. (Last week&#8217;s projection in brackets)<\/p>\n<p>Liberals \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 119 (111)<\/p>\n<p>Conservatives 113 (119)<\/p>\n<p>BQ \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a041 \u00a0(49)<\/p>\n<p>NDP \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a035 \u00a0(29)<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the most startling element of these relatively small changes is at the back of the pack.<\/p>\n<p>The BQ has slipped because of a Liberal surge in Quebec &#8212; something people are not yet paying attention to in the media, even though Michael Marzolini&#8217;s leaked Liberal poll earlier this week suggested a similar trend. If this keeps up, it might have a substantial effect on the BQ&#8217;s willingness to go to an election.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, the NDP has jumped substantially &#8212; back nearly to the level they enjoyed in the last election. This is likely more to do with close &#8220;splits&#8221; between the two largest parties rather than any gain in support for the NDP which poll-to-poll was infinitesimal.<\/p>\n<p>Why do I find these numbers interesting? Well, add the Liberal number to the NDP number, and what do you get? <em>154<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>And what is 154? Exactly half of 308.<\/p>\n<p>Get my drift?<\/p>\n<p><em>Paul Adams teaches journalism at Carleton and works with EKOS Research on its political polling.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"small;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Paul Adams Today&#8217;s EKOS Poll for the CBC shows the Liberals tied to the decimal point on national vote intention. Naturally, this slight closing of the race from last week means a slight change in the seat projection for the front runners from my last post. (Last week&#8217;s projection in brackets) Liberals \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,11,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-all","category-media-commentary","category-political-stragegy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1179"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1188,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179\/revisions\/1188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}