{"id":604,"date":"2008-10-01T18:02:25","date_gmt":"2008-10-01T23:02:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/election08.cusjc.ca\/?p=604"},"modified":"2008-10-01T18:05:53","modified_gmt":"2008-10-01T23:05:53","slug":"that-majority-question","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/?p=604","title":{"rendered":"That majority question"},"content":{"rendered":"

Andrew Cohen<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Among the blizzard of polls appearing every day of this campaign, the most intriguing may be this one: 52 percent of Canadians worry about giving the Conservatives a majority.<\/p>\n

They appear to be concerned about handing the government carte blanche, or four or five more years of unfettered, unchecked government.<\/p>\n

In other words, the Conservatives unbound. Stephen Harper unplugged. Any leader\u2019s fantasy.<\/p>\n

If this kind of anxiety exists in Canada, it\u2019s because that 52 per cent of Canadians think that the Conservatives would surprise or disappoint them with what they would do with a majority. That might mean cutting funding to the CBC or re-visiting abortion or capital punishment, which social conservatives oppose.<\/p>\n

But if the second part of this poll is right, the anxiety of Canadians doesn\u2019t mean much. Asked whether they would change their vote to stop a Conservative majority, 81 per cent said no.<\/p>\n

The prospect of a Conservative majority apparently doesn\u2019t unnerve Canadians as deeply as it did in 2006, when the Conservatives were held to a minority, or in 2004, when they lost. Both times the Liberals argued that the Conservatives had \u201ca secret agenda\u201d and couldn\u2019t be trusted with a majority.<\/p>\n

Now, if it it is true that half of Canadians \u201cworry\u201d about a majority but four-fifths will do nothing to prevent it — such as strategic voting — the dynamic of this campaign may have decisively shifted.<\/p>\n

It may explain why the Conservatives began the campaign predicting that they would win only a minority, afraid to raise the prospect of a majority. Worried about driving frightened voters to the Liberals, they sought to lower expectations and hope that a polarized electorate would deliver their majority on October 14.<\/p>\n

But they\u2019re less shy now. Harper may still be wary of using the \u201cM\u201d word too much, but he is asking for a stronger \u201cmandate\u201d to free his government from the scrutiny of those left-of-centre parties in Parliament.<\/p>\n

He has reason to be confident. While no polls shows him winning more than 40 percent of the vote, the level of support necessary for a majority in Parliament, he still remains at least 10 points ahead of the Liberals.<\/p>\n

Deep down, Canadians may not like Stephen Harper very much and even may not trust him with a majority, which is why he can\u2019t crack 40 per cent. But because they like other parties more than they fear his, they may give him his wish anyway.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

This column originally appeared in the Metro newspapers.<\/em><\/p>\n

Andrew Cohen, a professor of journalism and international affairs at Carleton University, is the author of Extraordinary Canadians: Lester B. Pearson<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Andrew Cohen Among the blizzard of polls appearing every day of this campaign, the most intriguing may be this one: 52 percent of Canadians worry about giving the Conservatives a majority. They appear to be concerned about handing the government carte blanche, or four or five more years of unfettered, unchecked government. In other words, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,4,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-election2008","category-election-2008-campaign-strategy","category-election-2008-faculty-links"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=604"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":613,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604\/revisions\/613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}