{"id":631,"date":"2008-10-06T10:12:09","date_gmt":"2008-10-06T15:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/election08.cusjc.ca\/?p=631"},"modified":"2009-04-24T08:05:05","modified_gmt":"2009-04-24T13:05:05","slug":"small-fluctuations-can-make-big-differences-in-seats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/?p=631","title":{"rendered":"Small fluctuations can make big differences in seats"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Paul Adams<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>first posted at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekoselection.com\">the EKOS election site.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a nail-biter. We are entering a stage in the election campaign\u00a0when small regional fluctuations in support could make huge differences to the futures of the\u00a0parties and their leaders. In a universe where there are many three-way races, and even some\u00a0four-way races, quite small changes in popular support can dramatically alter the arithmetic in\u00a0terms of parliamentary seats. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A case in point:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday evening, EKOS released the weekend\u2019s results from its tracking poll, which on the\u00a0surface showed very little change. The Conservatives and the Greens were down a percentage\u00a0point from Friday\u2019s three-day roll up and the Liberals were up a point. Otherwise no change.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, there were some subtle shifts in the regional numbers, most notably in the Atlantic\u00a0provinces where the Liberals are doing better, and in British Columbia where the race between\u00a0the Tories and NDP has tightened considerably. There were also smaller fluctuations in other\u00a0regions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The results in terms of our seat projection model were quite dramatic.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On Friday\u2019s numbers, the Conservatives were achingly close to a majority \u2013 just three seats shy.\u00a0And the Liberals were headed to winning almost 90 seats fewer than the Tories.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The weekend numbers suggest a different story, however. The improved Liberal strength in the\u00a0Atlantic provinces swings many seats over to the Liberals. They also creep up a few seats in\u00a0Ontario at the Tories\u2019 expense. The suggested result: a Conservative Party barely improving its\u00a0seat performance over the last election.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Small shifts: big implications for the potential result.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This is not so much a prediction of the outcome of the election October 14, as a reminder that\u00a0with so many seats exquisitely poised among the various contenders, very subtle shifts in public\u00a0mood over the remaining days of the campaign may greatly alter the political landscape of the\u00a0coming years.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Seat Projection Oct 3<\/p>\n<p>CPC 152<\/p>\n<p>Lib 60<\/p>\n<p>ND 41<\/p>\n<p>BQ \u00a054<\/p>\n<p>GP \u00a00<\/p>\n<p>Oth 1<\/p>\n<p>Seat Projections Oct. 5<\/p>\n<p>CPC \u00a0130<\/p>\n<p>Lib \u00a0 \u00a0 78<\/p>\n<p>NDP \u00a0 42<\/p>\n<p>BQ \u00a0 \u00a0 58<\/p>\n<p>GP \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 0<\/p>\n<p>Oth \u00a0 \u00a0 0<\/p>\n<p>For detailed tables with regional breakdowns, go to www.ekoselection.com<\/p>\n<p><em>Paul Adams is a former political reporter with the CBC and the Globe and Mail, and is now a member of Carleton\u2019s journalism faculty, and executive director of EKOS Research Associates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Paul Adams first posted at the EKOS election site. It\u2019s a nail-biter. We are entering a stage in the election campaign\u00a0when small regional fluctuations in support could make huge differences to the futures of the\u00a0parties and their leaders. In a universe where there are many three-way races, and even some\u00a0four-way races, quite small changes in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-election2008","category-election-2008-campaign-strategy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=631"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":738,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631\/revisions\/738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cusjc.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}