Seat projections

Posted by padams under All

Paul Adams

This morning, EKOS Research Associates released through the CBC what I believe to be the largest-ever sample of Canadian public opinion on federal vote intention. (I was involved in the design.) You can find the details here.

Over more than three weeks, the survey of nearly 11,000 Canadians showed a very close race between the Liberals and Conservatives for first place, with the Liberals narrowly ahead, 33.5% to the Tories 32.3%. (NDP 15.1%, Greens 10.4%, BQ 8.7% nationally.) Here’s a seat projection based on those numbers. It shows the Liberals ahead, perhaps more due to the Tories’ wasted votes in Alberta than to the national edge on voter support. (By the way, if the projection had been based solely on the last few days, after the deficit news was released, the Liberals would have fared significantly better).

 

Constituencies Won
	C.P.C.	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other	Total
CANADA	113	122	29	0	44	0	308
Atlantic	8	20	4	0	0	0	32
Quebec	7	24	0	0	44	0	75
Ontario	37	58	11	0	0	0	106
Man.	8	4	2	0	0	0	14
Sask	12	2	0	0	0	0	14
Alta.	26	1	1	0	0	0	28
B.C.	15	11	10	0	0	0	36
Yk/NWT/Nu	0	2	1	0	0	0	3